So there is talk about the Phillies exploring a signing that involves a low risk, high reward guy? Ok. I think I know somebody. This somebody goes by the name of Brandon Morrow. So lets dive in! First things first, I know you guys want to know his age, so I'll just tell you now. He's 30 years old. I'm aware that the Phillies fan-base is frightened by anyone that has a 30 year old+ age attached to their name, but this one is Ok. He is what you might call a young 30 year old (I have to say that so people won't leave my blog) In other words, he still has several years of baseball left to play. And, he can contribute to the Phils rotation and/or bullpen in the future. Technically, he is at the peak of his prime and the last time I checked, players that are at the peak of their prime, perform the best they ever will. Despite Morrow wanting to be a starting pitcher, he is not just a starting pitcher. He can be a good a relief pitcher as well. Whether you believe he is better at one or the other is simply your opinion and perspective. But the Phillies perspective, is that he could be a viable 3rd starter in their incomplete rotation. Should the Phillies trade Cole Hamels, or in that case, anyone else, and acquire more starting pitchers, therefore creating a logjam of sorts in the rotation, he could seamlessly move to the pen. Once there, he would not only be a nice contributor, but he could be a veteran that would mentor the extremely young bullpen. A bullpen that's average age is 27.1 with Papelbon and Bastardo, and 25.4 without Papelbon and Bastardo (the two oldest). He would especially be the needed veteran if/when Papelbon and Bastardo are traded. Let us go to the much needed numbers now. First of all, Brandon Morrow has pitched in the American League his entire career (Mariners & Blue Jays). We all know that the AL is a hitters league, and isn't dominated by pitching like NL, right? I hope so. Here's a little proof: The AL had the MLB batting champion (Jose Altuve; .341), and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers (Victor Martinez; .335, Michael Brantley; .327, and Adrian Beltre; .324) all ahead of the NL batting champion, Justin Morneau (.319). Also, the AL had the majors best slugger (Nelson Cruz; 40 HR), and 7 other players with 32 or more HR (Carter, Trout, Abreu, Ortiz, Bautista, Encarnacion, and Martinez). By comparison, the NL only had 2 players with 32 or more HR (Stanton; 37, Rizzo; 32), and only 3 total to hit over 30 homers. Additionally, 16 players drove in 90 or more runs in the AL, and 9 of those players drove in 100 or more runs. Meanwhile, the NL had only 8 players drive in 90+ runs, and only 3 of them had 100+ RBI's. Must I go into some saber metrics? In other words, Morrow should greatly benefit from a move to the NL, and his numbers should translate nicely. Morrow has logged 735.2 innings in his career, so he definitely has his share of experience. He has started 108 games, and pitched in a total of 231. This means he has spent time in both the rotation, and pen. In 108 of the games Morrow has started, he has 54 quality starts (6+ innings, and 3 or less runs allowed) Good enough for a quality start percentage of 50%, allowing you to safely count on a quality start from him just about every other day he pitches. Pretty good right? Morrow also has 50 games of at least 100 pitches or more. This guy certainly has the ability to go deep into games. Despite Morrow's bad career walk rate of 10.7%, and 4.2 BB/9, he has a fantastic strikeout rate of 24.2% and 9.4 K/9 that make up for this (Both his K%, and K/9 come in at just under excellent on Fangraphs chart). Morrow was just 55 strikeouts behind the AL leader in 2010 (178), and he was just 47 strikeouts less than the AL leader in 2011 (203). I'll just say it this way: Brandon Morrow is a strikeout machine. While Brandon's career FIP, WHIP, and BABIP all come in at around league average (3.93, 1.357, and .297), he has a great career average of 8 H/9, and 1 HR/9. Morrow's best year was in 2012 where he started 21 games and pitched to a 10-7 record, 2.96 ERA, and had 3 complete game shutouts. Not bad for a guy pitching on a team that finished the year with a record of 73-89. If Brandon can pitch that well on one of the last place teams in their league, whom doesn't provide much run support, imagine what he can do on a good, or even just decent/.500 team. Not that the Phillies are any better than the 2012 Blue Jays, but when the Phils are back to relevancy, and are good, he should be a nice commodity. When Morrow pitches in relief he is solid as well. He has come into games and inherited 55 runners on base in his career. Of the 55 base-runners, only 16 of them scored (29%). He also has a lot of experience in extreme pressure and high leverage moments, as he has pitched in 54 high leverage moments. Good enough for a career average of 1.186 aLi (average leverage plate appearances). His aLi translates into his coming into games and pitching in more high pressure moments, than medium or low pressure moments. Brandon has a career WAR of 7.4. Once again, pretty good, right? If I was Ruben Amaro Jr., and I knew Brandon Morrow's only issue was/is walks, I'd sign him in a heartbeat. Carlos Ruiz is a pitcher-loved-catcher, who works with and helps pitchers adjust and fix their problems. Ruiz and pitching coach Bob McClure can both coach and help him out, and if he improves on his control, he will be a great get. I wouldn't be too slow to say he would be a great get even if he still had a little bit of a walk problem. After all, the pitcher has great velocity. This September he pitched anywhere from 97.49-100.72 MPH, with two very good swing-and-miss pitches in his slider and splitter. Overall, this pitcher has been and can be a great pitcher both now, and in the future for the Phillies.
As you know, I'm less excited about Morrow. If walks were his only issue, then maybe I'd take a chance. But he also can't stay healthy. (And yes, I realize this is the only reason he's even an option at this point.)
The strikeout numbers are nice, and if he was younger, I'd say he's on the verge of putting it all together. But he's 30, and has only had one season that was above average in his career.