Recently the Phillies have placed a creative emphasis on getting young, athletic and overall better. They've been creative in completing these tasks through both the obvious and less obvious processes. The obviously are: Free Agency (not the place to go to accomplish this), trades (more of the place to go), and international signings (the very obvious, and easy route to do this). The uncommon routes are: claiming players through waivers, small trades through waivers (both can be through the designated player process), Rule 5 Draft, etc. If the Phils are going to hold true to their word, and really are going to re-create the roster of this team for the betterment of the future, then they need to continue exploring not only common ways of acquiring young talent, but also the uncommon processes. A player the Phils should easily spot on their radar through a creative lense, is Eury De La Rosa. Eury De La Rosa is the epitome of young (24), talented, and valuable. He is also under team control through 2021, when he becomes a free agent. Currently, De La Rosa is designated for assignment, meaning he's definitely available for the Phillies if they so choose. When people first look at De La Rosa they think he's a small-man, I dare say. And, there is some truth to that (he is 5'9"; 165 pounds), but the way he pitches certainly re-directs your mind back to what really matters: Performance on the baseball diamond. De La Rosa certainly didn't disappoint when he first debuted on July 14th, 2013 as he pitched 2 innings, allowing no walks, hits, or runs, and striking out 3. Although his debut was great, his first taste of the majors wasn't. He pitched to a 7.36 ERA in 19 games (14.2 innings), and a FIP and WHIP of 6.32, and 1.227. Though the numbers are not good, they are a bit bloated due to the small sample size. He still struck out near 10 batters (9.8 to be exact) per 9 innings, and allowed only 8 hits per 9 innings despite that. These numbers are underwhelming, so lets look past the rookie adjustment period, and look at his first legit season under the "Now MLB player" tag. In 2014, De La Rosa pitched to a 2-0 record, 2.95 ERA and 128 ERA+ (a mighty 28 points above league average), 3.49 FIP (a clear improvement of 2.83), and although his WHIP jumped up a tad bit to 1.391, his home runs per 9 innings were a meager .5, and his hits per 9 innings was good at 9.1. So, in other words, the stats say that overall Eury De La Rosa improved his 2nd year in the bigs, in his first real taste of major league action. This improvement shows that De La Rosa can pitch with the big boys, and-at times-better than them. This, combined with his age and athleticism, are exactly why I believe he is worthy of being claimed or traded for to be a nice #4 or #5 starter for the Phillies (possibly #3 starter later down the road). The question is simply whether De La Rosa is on the Phils "creative radar".
So there is talk about the Phillies exploring a signing that involves a low risk, high reward guy? Ok. I think I know somebody. This somebody goes by the name of Brandon Morrow. So lets dive in! First things first, I know you guys want to know his age, so I'll just tell you now. He's 30 years old. I'm aware that the Phillies fan-base is frightened by anyone that has a 30 year old+ age attached to their name, but this one is Ok. He is what you might call a young 30 year old (I have to say that so people won't leave my blog) In other words, he still has several years of baseball left to play. And, he can contribute to the Phils rotation and/or bullpen in the future. Technically, he is at the peak of his prime and the last time I checked, players that are at the peak of their prime, perform the best they ever will. Despite Morrow wanting to be a starting pitcher, he is not just a starting pitcher. He can be a good a relief pitcher as well. Whether you believe he is better at one or the other is simply your opinion and perspective. But the Phillies perspective, is that he could be a viable 3rd starter in their incomplete rotation. Should the Phillies trade Cole Hamels, or in that case, anyone else, and acquire more starting pitchers, therefore creating a logjam of sorts in the rotation, he could seamlessly move to the pen. Once there, he would not only be a nice contributor, but he could be a veteran that would mentor the extremely young bullpen. A bullpen that's average age is 27.1 with Papelbon and Bastardo, and 25.4 without Papelbon and Bastardo (the two oldest). He would especially be the needed veteran if/when Papelbon and Bastardo are traded. Let us go to the much needed numbers now. First of all, Brandon Morrow has pitched in the American League his entire career (Mariners & Blue Jays). We all know that the AL is a hitters league, and isn't dominated by pitching like NL, right? I hope so. Here's a little proof: The AL had the MLB batting champion (Jose Altuve; .341), and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers (Victor Martinez; .335, Michael Brantley; .327, and Adrian Beltre; .324) all ahead of the NL batting champion, Justin Morneau (.319). Also, the AL had the majors best slugger (Nelson Cruz; 40 HR), and 7 other players with 32 or more HR (Carter, Trout, Abreu, Ortiz, Bautista, Encarnacion, and Martinez). By comparison, the NL only had 2 players with 32 or more HR (Stanton; 37, Rizzo; 32), and only 3 total to hit over 30 homers. Additionally, 16 players drove in 90 or more runs in the AL, and 9 of those players drove in 100 or more runs. Meanwhile, the NL had only 8 players drive in 90+ runs, and only 3 of them had 100+ RBI's. Must I go into some saber metrics? In other words, Morrow should greatly benefit from a move to the NL, and his numbers should translate nicely. Morrow has logged 735.2 innings in his career, so he definitely has his share of experience. He has started 108 games, and pitched in a total of 231. This means he has spent time in both the rotation, and pen. In 108 of the games Morrow has started, he has 54 quality starts (6+ innings, and 3 or less runs allowed) Good enough for a quality start percentage of 50%, allowing you to safely count on a quality start from him just about every other day he pitches. Pretty good right? Morrow also has 50 games of at least 100 pitches or more. This guy certainly has the ability to go deep into games. Despite Morrow's bad career walk rate of 10.7%, and 4.2 BB/9, he has a fantastic strikeout rate of 24.2% and 9.4 K/9 that make up for this (Both his K%, and K/9 come in at just under excellent on Fangraphs chart). Morrow was just 55 strikeouts behind the AL leader in 2010 (178), and he was just 47 strikeouts less than the AL leader in 2011 (203). I'll just say it this way: Brandon Morrow is a strikeout machine. While Brandon's career FIP, WHIP, and BABIP all come in at around league average (3.93, 1.357, and .297), he has a great career average of 8 H/9, and 1 HR/9. Morrow's best year was in 2012 where he started 21 games and pitched to a 10-7 record, 2.96 ERA, and had 3 complete game shutouts. Not bad for a guy pitching on a team that finished the year with a record of 73-89. If Brandon can pitch that well on one of the last place teams in their league, whom doesn't provide much run support, imagine what he can do on a good, or even just decent/.500 team. Not that the Phillies are any better than the 2012 Blue Jays, but when the Phils are back to relevancy, and are good, he should be a nice commodity. When Morrow pitches in relief he is solid as well. He has come into games and inherited 55 runners on base in his career. Of the 55 base-runners, only 16 of them scored (29%). He also has a lot of experience in extreme pressure and high leverage moments, as he has pitched in 54 high leverage moments. Good enough for a career average of 1.186 aLi (average leverage plate appearances). His aLi translates into his coming into games and pitching in more high pressure moments, than medium or low pressure moments. Brandon has a career WAR of 7.4. Once again, pretty good, right? If I was Ruben Amaro Jr., and I knew Brandon Morrow's only issue was/is walks, I'd sign him in a heartbeat. Carlos Ruiz is a pitcher-loved-catcher, who works with and helps pitchers adjust and fix their problems. Ruiz and pitching coach Bob McClure can both coach and help him out, and if he improves on his control, he will be a great get. I wouldn't be too slow to say he would be a great get even if he still had a little bit of a walk problem. After all, the pitcher has great velocity. This September he pitched anywhere from 97.49-100.72 MPH, with two very good swing-and-miss pitches in his slider and splitter. Overall, this pitcher has been and can be a great pitcher both now, and in the future for the Phillies.
Haven't you heard?...the Phils are in a rebuilding phase....
If you haven't received the news by now, I have to seriously question your dedication and "liking" of the Phillies baseball team. This is because the word is not just out, it is widely known around the league. In fact, Ruben and co. are actively making trade proposals, and have repeatedly reiterated the need for youthful players who can provide upgrades, and change. Players who can fill out a deep depth chart. I know someone who can fit that bill quite nicely: Jose Tabata.
I know, I know. You're debating whether or not I am sane. But I feel quite sure I am. Here's why:
One of the gigantic, if not biggest, need this team has, is the need for youth. Young guys. Jose Tabata is the very definition of young. The outfielder is only 26. But, the thing about him, is that he has 5 seasons, 482 games, 1,724 plate appearances, and above all else postseason experience under his belt. This young man is in his mid-twenties, and already has more experience than many players will ever get. The point here is this: He knows how to go about business and get things done. He knows how to work hard, and be a professional on a daily basis in the clubhouse. Lots of 26 year-olds are still trying to figure out how to go about the routines and do the little things. Jose isn't.
Jose isn't a guy who you pencil in your lineup at the same position everyday. He is versatile, and can play all 3 outfield spots if need be. However, he has spent less time in center field, but I'm sure if Ryne Sandberg were to have an emergency, Tabata wouldn't have a problem manning the position.
Now, lets get to a few numbers that I'm sure you would like to see.
Out of his 1,724 plate appearances, he has only struck out 247 times. Talk about plate discipline, this guy is almost ensuring a ball in play. Once on base, he also is a threat. In fact, those of you who already have a little knowledge of Tabata, know that his speed is arguably his best tool. He has stolen 47 bags, and has 206 runs in his career so far. Batting wise, he has a decent average of .275, and an OPS of .715. Which the latter would be considered great in the Phils lineup. Jose has also has 113 extra base hits in his career, and has the ability to hit a home run every now and then. Defensively, he has a fantastic fielding percentage of .992, and 18 assists throughout his baseball tenure with the Pirates. Overall, Tabata has a career WAR of 2.3 which isn't terrible at all. (All stats via baseball reference)
Additionally, Tabata is under club control for 5 years, starting with next season. He is certainly quite capable of contributing on this Phillies team when it is playing competitive baseball again. He is young enough to do this in his prime, maybe even peak of his prime.
Right about now, you might be thinking he's a better player and option than before you read through this, but realize he is still in the Pirates organization. Yes, he is, but yes he is available. I know this because the Pirates outrighted him of their 40-man roster. They have no need for him on their Major League roster, but the Phils do. I read some articles about his outright off the 40-man roster by the teams beat writers, and got the impression that he certainly wasn't a fan-favorite. Not because of his personality or actions, but statistically they didn't see him as a fit. The Phillies could however, as he could be a young versatile, reserve/4th outfielder, who could provide depth and spot start occasionally.
The question now is, "how do you acquire him?" Well, it's pretty simple. Find out the trade partners needs, and whether or not you can satisfy them in a trade. One such need is a bullpen arm. A bullpen arm the Phils have been aggressively shopping around for a while now, is Antonio Bastardo. He is a relatively young arm who puts up good numbers. Another option for Pittsburgh is young righthander Hector Neris. He has emerged as a guy who can be a go-to reliever in the majors for the years to come. In other words, if the Phils were to facilitate a trade in the efforts of acquiring Jose Tabata look for a trade built around someone like Bastardo or Neris.
To sum it up, a young, yet experienced player who can contribute and put up numbers, while also contributing to the team in the future, is Jose Tabata. He can be had in a trade the Phillies could make, that would effectively help the rebuilding phase. If the Phillies are in their right mind, they would explore a move like this in an effort to acquire a low risk, high reward guy in Jose Tabata.
Disappointment. Unhappiness. Discontent. All of these emotions are among the seemingly, dwindling Phillies fan-base. But why?..... Yes, the team is by-far under-performing, and has for the past 3 seasons. Yes, the general manager has, and will, make some questioning and debatable decisions. But, the organization has recognized the need for a new direction. Interim president, Pat Gillick, and GM, Ruben Amaro, have publicly noted the need and desire to begin (gasp) a rebuilding phase. And, the team has began this process. There is absolutely no reason to panic. There was, however, some degree and area for this when awhile back, pretty much the entire fan-base saw the need for a "retooling" period (as RAJ calls it) and a deafening silence was heard from the team. But now, the team has changed. Ruben and co. seem to be moving toward progress and a new era for a few years. This means there is plenty of reason to be positive, and supportive of the organization. The organization needs their share of new youth and up-and-coming prospects, but lets not overlook the often underrated talent the organization does have. It has a future ace in Aaron Nola. It has a future center fielder and catalyst in Roman Quinn (see my 11/03/14 piece). It has a future shortstop in J.P Crawford. And, the team has a, now major-leaguer, future third-baseman/first-baseman Maikel Franco. The Phils have giant, versatile outfielders in the making in: Aaron Altherr, Cord Sandberg, Dylen Cozens, Cam Perkins, Kelly Dugan, Zach Green, and Aaron Brown. The team already has Cody Asche who (unfairly) has been frowned upon. He too has a great future in the majors, whether its at third-base, or left-field. This organization has talent, undeniable talent at that. This team has, and will acquire more talent, in a surprisingly few years. Lets not forget that the Phils are leaders in the race for young, Cuban sensation and slugger Yasmani Tomas. Not to mention, the team could very well trade Cole Hamels and get a wealth of prospects. Prospects will come this team's way in the coming years via trade, international signings, and drafts. That will not be a problem (so long as the team maintains their new mindset). Another thing to factor into why I think this team will win a World Series before 2020, is that their will be plenty of veteran guys around to mentor and help teach these new prospects. Fan favorites Chase Utley and Carlos (chooch) Ruiz will be around for the next 3 years or so. They may not put up their old numbers, but they can/will certainly be good mentors. In conclusion, I firmly believe the Phillies will win a World Series before 2020 because: 1) they have an underrated talent pool of prospects that will immensely contribute in the majors, 2) they are on the verge of possibly acquiring many young prospects which will continue for the foreseeable future, and 3) these recruits will, in upcoming years, have veteran mentors who will let their presence be known.
There is a lot of talk about the No. 5 prospect in the Phils organization. This prospect is highly touted centerfielder and former shortstop Roman Quinn. And for good reason. The kid is back to his old self. The kid many expected to see develop into the "guy", and the top-of-the-order catalyst for the organization, is on cruise control in the Arizona Fall League. He is stealing bags (13 stolen bases),drawing walks-which was a point of emphasis for him- (12 walks), and he has put up a solid OPS of .735. Not to mention, he got selected to be in the AFL all-stars game..So, yes, he is back to putting up good numbers again, but the point is this: he is back to the position many expected him to be in before, and in the future, which is him being a catalyst in the making. A catalyst that will be reliable in the field, and in the box. A catalyst that will draw walks and get on base. A catalyst that will steal bases. A catalyst that will get extra base hits. A catalyst that will score many runs. And finally: a catalyst that will be leading this Phils team to titles, championships, and rings. But, of the many things I just listed, only one of them can accurately be said of Ben Revere. And that is the ability to steal bases. Being able to do only one thing-steal bases-is not going to get the job done as a leading top-of-the-order man in the majors. This is where Quinn comes in. Quinn scored 51 runs, and had 13 extra base hits in 88 games this past season, while Revere scored only 71 runs, and had only 20 extra base hits in 63 more games. Perhaps the most telling stat is that Quinn had 36 base on balls last season, while Revere had only 13. Quinn IS the leading top-of-the-order man of the future. Revere is not. Revere is a stopgap whether you want to believe it or not. He isn't the long-term solution, but Quinn is. The 21 year-old, switch hitter, has all the intangibles needed to be a superstar centerfielder for the Phillies. Many intangibles that Revere doesn't have or utilized. This is why Quinn is the catalyst for the Phils, and Revere is not.
The idea of Ryan Howard being considered a trade option after the the 2006 season would be by many an absurd thought. After all, he hit 58 homers, and drove in 149 runs. Now, however, it is not only a common and well-wanted thing among the fan base, but the organization itself is desperately trying to unload him. They are trying to do all this, despite a $60 million contract still owed to the aging 34 year-old, as well as, production that is going down. Production that only produced 23 homers, and a .223 average this past year. So, being a part of this fan base, I too thought of the possibility of trading him in certain scenarios. Being a part of the Phillies fan base led me to factor in several other things into these scenarios as well. These factors include the need for youth, upgrades in certain positions, money etc. Therefore, I created a well-thought scenario that includes the following players: 1B Ryan Howard, 3B Cody Asche, 3B/1B Maikel Franco, LF Dominic Brown, LF Dustin Ackley and 1B Billy Butler. The scenario works like this: You trade Ryan Howard to an American League team for $5 million dollars relief (the Phils pay $55 million), then sign Billy Butler to a 3-year $20 million dollar deal, then move Asche to LF, and put Franco at 3B to man. Lastly, you complete the scenario with Brown being traded to Seattle for Dustin Ackley in a change of scenery type deal. Ackley would then be placed on the bench as a reserve. By doing this, you get youth, as well as upgrades at 1B, 3B, and LF. Butler should be able to produce better numbers than Howard, especially if he starts to hit like he did in 2012, and proves this past season was a fluke. Maikel has the ability to do more than Asche, and Asche should do the same compared to Brown. And, not only are you injecting youth into the lineup and bench (Butler 28, Asche 24, Franco 22, Ackley 26), and trading two under-producing players, you aren't paying very much money for the four players who can produce up to about 70 homers, and 240 RBI's next season. Because of this, this scenario would improve the team immensely. But to think about this team's potential if it were to also sign Tomas also just jumps out to you....So....the question is this: IS Butler an "option"?